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Life after BREXIT
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Blue Sky



Joined: 30 Jan 2005
Posts: 7654
Location: France
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 19 7:24 pm    Post subject: Life after BREXIT  Reply with quote    

So who's got the popcorn in for the show?

Shane



Joined: 31 Oct 2005
Posts: 3106
Location: Doha. Is hot.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 19 3:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote    

Me. Watching from the outside in despair at what my country has become (a world laughing stock, for one) as I wait for my application for French citizenship to go through.

tahir



Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 44229
Location: Essex
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 19 11:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote    

Shane wrote:
Watching from the outside in despair at what my country has become (a world laughing stock, for one)


But we'll be a laughing stock that is finally independent of EVERYTHING, there ain't no rules gonna hold us back

dpack



Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 35019
Location: yes
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 19 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

der untergang with plastic beads and a pugin gothic revival setting.

"where are my ferries?" " the nukenips have betrayed me" " strong and stable "etc etc

on a cheery note saturday is the day when the referendum result would go the other way just on demographics. enough dead and enough enfranchised if each demographic group vote the same as in 16

it seems fairly certain quite a few who voted leave may have decided it was a bad idea and some of those who voted leave to stick it to cameron etc might well not vote to leave in another go.

Hairyloon



Joined: 20 Nov 2008
Posts: 15215
Location: Today I are mostly being in Yorkshire.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 19 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/16/billboard-campaign-reminds-voters-of-mps-brexit-promises

Not sure if that image is displaying. It's not working for me, but neither is the yellow jacket.

Ty Gwyn



Joined: 22 Sep 2010
Posts: 4193
Location: Lampeter
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 19 7:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

Which crossings are used for the French and German cars and wine?

Shan



Joined: 13 Jan 2009
Posts: 7905
Location: South Wales
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 19 8:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

Dover is the major route. https://on.ft.com/2Dh3Ory I have gifted this article, so you should be able to read it.


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Nick



Joined: 02 Nov 2004
Posts: 33978
Location: Hereford
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 19 9:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

Ty Gwyn wrote:
Which crossings are used for the French and German cars and wine?


Greater than 90% of French wine exports won’t be impacted by Brexit. German Cars? Which ones? The BMWs and Minis made in the UK that are down scaling their prodiction, cancelling new factories and setting up in Eastern Europe? They go via Dover mostly. But the newly unemployed British workers won’t worry about that soon.
Why do you ask?

dpack



Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 35019
Location: yes
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 19 10:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

dover is also a RSG ( or whatever they call them these days ) so as well as the port issues there could well be strategic route and security considerations to consider if the castle goes active " in support of the civilian powers"

Ty Gwyn



Joined: 22 Sep 2010
Posts: 4193
Location: Lampeter
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 19 11:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

Actually,i was thinking more of Audi,Peugeot,Renault etc,but you can add a large list of Agri equipment to that.

I seem to remember a number of firms transferring to the EU and outside it before 2016,what`s new.

tahir



Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 44229
Location: Essex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 19 7:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote    

Ty Gwyn wrote:
what`s new.


New Holland tractors at Basildon is a shell of what it used to be, as is Ford at Dagenham. Ford have been talking about making Dagenham one of their main electric drivetrain providers, this will not happen if our deal is a bad one, in the case of no deal I guess they'll sell all their high land value sites in Essex and move those functions somewhere cheaper.

Shan



Joined: 13 Jan 2009
Posts: 7905
Location: South Wales
PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 19 8:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote    

We have also seen the EBA & the EMA move to Europe. This will translate to the relocation of assorted offices of major pharmaceutical companies, financial institutions, and their associated lobbyists and consultancies.

dpack



Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 35019
Location: yes
PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 19 1:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

hitachi and toshiba have decided not to fund and construct the sellafied and wylfa reactors which leave about a third of the planned replacement capacity still ongoing, ongoing includes at least one that might never get finished due to technical/admin issues and iirc 2 that have been thought about but not fully committed to .

overall the 30% of base load that nuke was to supply is now less than 10% organised and the last few existing plants are overdue for decommissioning already.

ie a shortfall to base load of about 20% which is rather less than the few % above grid failures base load we have at the mo

on the subject of logistics dover alone does over 15000 wagons a day, there will be only 5000 lorry permits for the uk to operate in the eu so most cross border movement would be in eu lorries and they will not want the job if it involves a day driving and a week in traffic jams and customs.
there was mention of a short term permit for uk firms to do a direct journey in either direction but unless you have a return load permit that is unlikely to be a good business model ( and see delay issues )

on the subject of logistics does anyone fancy the job as a ni/roi border guard apart from a smuggler's brother in law

on the subject of ni the idea of a thousand mainlaind reinforcements to support the psni in case of civil unrest is so mental one can only think there are some who would favour a remilitarisation of the 6 counties.
to get close to the militarisation levels of the troubles would require most of the mod resources available for the whole uk just to deal with less than 2% of the total population,
looking at that in the other direction to achieve troubles level of militarisation in the rest of the uk would require an extra million or so personnel
10000 regular and 40000 reservists are barely enough to be short staffed in south london

my conclusion is such mod personnel would not be policing or delivering care packages but would be guarding the assets of hmg and securing the infrastructure of the emergency plans , even containing an angry city on the move and seeking food would be outside the scope of those force numbers

ps civilians are a problem rather in need of help in most emergency plans of this nature.

Shan



Joined: 13 Jan 2009
Posts: 7905
Location: South Wales
PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 19 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

FT Article on the effect of Customs Delays:


Six-day queues into Dover feared under no-deal Brexit scenario

Trucks would face six-day queues to board ferries at Dover if new customs checks in the event of a no-deal Brexit were to delay each vehicle by just 70 seconds, according to government-commissioned research.

A summary of the analysis obtained by the Financial Times claims extra processing time of 80 seconds per truck would lead to “no recovery” — described by an official as widespread permanent gridlock.

The research, carried out by academics at University College London for the Department for Transport, will add to misgivings about the potential disruption of a disorderly exit from the EU. The research was presented to ministers in 2017 but never published.

On Monday the DfT conducted a live rehearsal of an emergency traffic system that will be introduced to prevent congestion at Dover in such circumstances. The trial used just 89 trucks to test out the disused Manston Airport, which will be used as a car park for 6,000 trucks under the contingency plans.

The Port of Dover, which handles up to 10,000 trucks a day, believes no-deal Brexit would lead to 17-mile tailbacks, while the government has estimated there will be an extra 200m customs declarations a year.

The UCL research was based on the impact of different processing times for outbound journeys using Dover’s existing layout and traffic flows. It anticipates that extra customs checks of up to 40 seconds per vehicle would have no impact on the queueing time for outward journeys through Dover.

However, that changes dramatically when the additional delays are only slightly longer. With a further 60 seconds of checks, officials anticipate queues of six to eight hours on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays, when traffic is particularly heavy.

If delays reach 70 seconds per truck, a queue of between 1,200 and 2,724 heavy goods vehicles is expected, leading to tailbacks taking six days. “[The queue] starts Monday evening and ends by Saturday noon,” according to the analysis.

If the processing time goes up to 80 seconds the result would simply be “no recovery”, it says.

“‘No recovery’ would mean the whole country is in a traffic jam,” said one official.

A DfT spokesperson said: “This analysis was undertaken by a third-party consultant two years ago and is not the current analysis on which the government is making its Brexit preparations.”

A department official said the UCL research was only one of “a number of documents commissioned” since the 2016 EU referendum. “Our main priority is to ensure that we get agreement with the EU, and, failing that, getting an agreement with the French authorities.”

Separate research by Imperial College London has predicted “paralysis” on the M20 motorway and A20 trunk road if new customs delays are introduced.

Ke Han of Imperial predicted nearly five hours of traffic delays in Kent at peak times, with an extra two minutes spent on each vehicle at the border tripling existing queues on the M20/A20 to 29 miles.

Current security and passport checks take up to two minutes, according to one estimate by Dr Han, but freight vehicles do not have to complete customs declarations, which could change under a no-deal Brexit.

Updated advice to government departments from officials last week warned that there could be six months of reduced access and delays at Dover and nearby Folkestone if there was no deal. That was dismissed as “Project Fear on steroids” by Andrew Bridgen, a Tory Brexiter MP.

Ty Gwyn



Joined: 22 Sep 2010
Posts: 4193
Location: Lampeter
PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 19 1:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

Won`t there also be queue`s in Calais and other EU ports,or am I missing something in cross channel trade?

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