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The US Shutdown.
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gregotyn



Joined: 24 Jun 2010
Posts: 1987
Location: Llanfyllin area
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 19 3:07 pm    Post subject:  Reply with quote    

Either way suits me MR. just as long as he goes!
Not sure I liked Hilary Cling-on, but preferable to what we have got.

Jam Lady



Joined: 28 Dec 2006
Posts: 2111
Location: New Jersey, USA
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 19 4:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

If president no longer able to serve then the vice president becomes president - Johnson after Kennedy was killed. If VP cannot serve then Speaker of the House is third in line. That would be Pelosi. Remember that impeachment does not directly remove president from office. There has to be a trial. Bill Clinton was impeached for lying but not removed from office.

dpack



Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 35512
Location: yes
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 19 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

imho neither, prediction is difficult but projection is a useful tool.

mueller has served assorted speaking indictments and sentencing recommendations. from what he has made public and what he must know about there are valid cases against many team trump members and family which could be prosecuted.

the tax, charity, money , fraud, profiting from office etc etc of teamtrump/family could be prosecuted.

afaik the potus cannot be charged while in office however mueller can report to the hill and they could impeach him if the gop see him as a liability for 2020

he is likely to want to stand for a second term as that gives him immunity but he might not get the gop ticket and more importantly he might not get re elected at which point assorted indictments might be unsealed and activated.

trump might resign in exchange for pardons for him and his family but that might not be on offer.

as pence is deeply implicated in misdeeds a simple 25th exit does not help much and there are legal blocks to arresting a sitting potus for their misdeeds

my best guess is mueller presents a strong case for collusion and obstruction against trump to the hill, they start impeachment actions. central members of family and teamtrump are charged with assorted felonies.
how it goes from there is beyond me .

for a wild bet bumped off by a disgruntled greenkeeper seems as plausible as anything

Mistress Rose



Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 10892

PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 19 7:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote    

It does seem odd that the President cannot be prosecuted while in office, but then I suppose our system seems odd to people from other countries. There is nothing to stop either the Prime Minister or the Monarch in the UK from prosecution, although as far as the Monarch goes, I think it would probably be done quietly and they be allowed to abdicate and live away from public life somewhere, perhaps under guard.

Nick



Joined: 02 Nov 2004
Posts: 34027
Location: Hereford
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 19 9:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote    

The monarch is absolutely above the law. Sovereign Immunity is well established in Convention, Case and International Law. It’ll pretty much protect Her Government, too

And for Presidents, the jury is somewhat out. It’s never been tested...

Mistress Rose



Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 10892

PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 19 9:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote    

It didn't help Charles I, and he was a far more absolute ruler than the present Queen.

Nick



Joined: 02 Nov 2004
Posts: 34027
Location: Hereford
PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 19 1:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

Mistress Rose wrote:
It didn't help Charles I, and he was a far more absolute ruler than the present Queen.


Well. That’s quite the daftest thing you’ve ever said, but let’s pretend it’s relevant. Almost 4% of the population died in the run up to, and aftermath of, his arrest. That’s hardly ‘nothing’.

dpack



Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 35512
Location: yes
PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 19 4:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

the casualty rate over that period was probably far higher than 4% if hardship related deaths are included with single issue trauma ones

averages dont give details, in some places cas. rates were very high, others less so.

in modern terms nastier than bosnia and a bit less nasty than pol pot (except in a few places where it was full on ruanda )

Nick



Joined: 02 Nov 2004
Posts: 34027
Location: Hereford
PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 19 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

‘Nothing to stop...’

Mistress Rose



Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 10892

PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 19 7:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote    

Having studied the period in our locality it seems to have been more of a fiasco than a battle. Only one direct casualty as far as I am aware, and that was when a Parliamentary cannon ball actually hit something; a mill. Did cause the local cattle and sheep to be swum across the harbour to keep them from marauding soldiers though.

Civil war is always nasty and hopefully can be avoided in both the US and UK.

I don't think there is any need to be rude either Nick.

Nick



Joined: 02 Nov 2004
Posts: 34027
Location: Hereford
PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 19 10:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote    

I’ll retract.

It’s not the daftest thing you’ve ever said.

Slim



Joined: 05 Mar 2006
Posts: 5377
Location: New England (In the US of A)
PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 19 6:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

Mistress Rose wrote:
It does seem odd that the President cannot be prosecuted while in office, but then I suppose our system seems odd to people from other countries.


This isn't actually established law or anything, just Department of Justice guidance. Nancy Pelosi recently asserted that a president could be indicted.

I would like to see the new makeup of the House of Representatives actually go ahead with impeachments. Some argue "why bother" without an assurance that Senate majority will allow for sentencing, or trial, or whatever its called, but I think impeachment is the only thing that will drum up enough focused political outrage upon sitting senators to feel compelled to act.

Slim



Joined: 05 Mar 2006
Posts: 5377
Location: New England (In the US of A)
PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 19 7:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

Shutdown is bothering people: https://www.kqed.org/news/11716115/locals-pick-up-the-slack-and-the-trash-as-government-shutdown-continues

Also: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/05/tsa-agents-are-calling-in-sick-amid-shutdown-what-you-need-to-know.html

I sort of hope the TSA workers organize and demand action
(and that it spurs people in the streets non-stop calling for political action to change the status quo - but I won't hold my breath)

Mistress Rose



Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 10892

PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 19 8:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote    

The quote “Everyone should have a plan for this stuff if you work for the federal government” doesn't really say a lot for working for the government unfortunately. Those without savings are going to have to find the money from somewhere, so may have to leave government service if their pay doesn't come through very soon I would think.

dpack



Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 35512
Location: yes
PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 19 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote    

those with gov contracts might get paid eventually, those who work for contractors will almost certainly not get paid.

short term they are stuffed in both situations, at least a well organised strike has welfare built in. a lock out does not.

a lock out where the workers are at no fault and are not in dispute with their employer and their immediate employer is not at fault or in dispute with the top line payee is rather harsh.

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