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Slim

Joined: 05 Mar 2006
Posts: 6406
Location: New England (In the US of A)

Posted: Sat Sep 17, 22 9:19 am Post subject:

I think dpack's point is likely along the lines that extreme heat is quickly becoming a relatively regular issue, unlike a one off decades ago where populations could build back up in the following "normal" years. We're very much not guaranteed a majority of years being "normal" anymore.

The same may become true of extreme cold (relative to your normal, anyway) as the moderating influence of the gulf stream gets disrupted. Or even just the growing regularity of weak cycles of the polar vortex letting arctic air move further south. Put the two together and you may have some rough winters relative to your expectations, and to your usual critters adaptations.

A single extreme event per year is tough. Two extremes in opposite directions could be tougher. Consecutive years of either or both types of extremes could redistribute the natural ranges of species.

dpack

Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 43746
Location: yes

Posted: Sat Sep 17, 22 9:49 am Post subject:
with some species it is not fewer, it is none within a mile or more when it is fewer, it is between 50% and 99% gone, depending on species if any have survived elsewhere, it will take more than a few years to restore the population numbers how the invertebrates many depend on have fared will be seen next year we had several months of drought and then a baking

dpack

Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 43746
Location: yes

Posted: Sat Sep 17, 22 1:11 pm Post subject:
if there is a repeat it is not a target rich environment, but it could take any recolonisers from elsewhere, if there are any near enough to find the territories, and it would probably also take some of the survivors from that last one compounding the issue

dpack

Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 43746
Location: yes

Posted: Sat Sep 17, 22 1:37 pm Post subject:

the rspb "where have my garden birds gone" was rather annoying

multiple species do not all go to live on a farm on one day

blackbirds with a near fledged chick do not go anywhere apart from the closest food and water and back, on the last visit from mrs brack she looked messed up, mr had been missing for hours
the wrens go nowhere, the sparrows dont stay away long even if they do find a better restaurant for a while at the time the ones now presumed dead were taking mealworms away as fast as they could, ie with unfledged chicks probably in roof voids

it would be a bit of a coincidence if they all got birdflu the same day it was over 45c at street level

dpack

Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 43746
Location: yes

Posted: Sat Sep 17, 22 7:23 pm Post subject:

more anecdote, ten days after there was a glut of lucilla a few days after that a glut of the checker board sarco flies

extrapolating from that sequence, perhaps the event provided their mums with plenty of tasty new food for the lucillas and then not so fresh food for the checked ones

there were plenty of blowflies about as well for a short while

i know the fly/bin cycle and this had a very different pattern and a very different mix of flies

follow the flies will help find the fallen, what has and is munching them writes a calender by sequence and time of death if you take the weather etc into account
spotting the flies can be educational even if you don't see the deceased

it could have been a lack of beaks upping the numbers, the aerial insect hunters went missing as well as the bush based ones

Mistress Rose

Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 14793

Posted: Sun Sep 18, 22 8:08 am Post subject:

Yes Slim you are right. It seems that where Dpack is, in the middle of a town, the mortality has been very high. In more rural surroundings, or even in suburban, I don't think it would have been as high.

One thing is that if there are fewer birds round you Dpack, the survivors are going to be able to have larger territories, so hopefully will manage and bring on good broods. The main problem there seems to be choice of nest sites. Is it possible for you to find somewhere out of the sun to put some nest boxes, particularly sparrow boxes that are usually several in a row?

Mistress Rose

Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 14793

Posted: Sun Sep 18, 22 8:08 am Post subject:

dpack

Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 43746
Location: yes

Posted: Sun Sep 18, 22 10:02 am Post subject:

many species have no survivors, the least depleted are at maybe 40% of pre event population numbers, most are lower than that eg one wren, now missing, from at least thirty in a few acres

re urban, suburban, countryside and what bits of wilderness we still have in the uk, all have merits and all have perils as a habitat
i would describe here as suburban spread from a walled city, there are a fair number of gardens with plants etc,trees, bushes, a park and a sssi a minutes flying time the patch i am calling here, some have paving some have wildlife habitats(we are a fairly green and educated city)

here was very avian friendly, but with a change of conditions it was perilous to the point of extinctions

something i have noticed is that the casualties are whole type of bird and life style groups, size matters the geese seem ok, jackdaws and pigeons only lost the 50% most vulnerable, small things were devastated, on a nest=gone and that goes for in a bush or in a roof void 100% fatal

the 30% of sparrows are the teenagers who were not nesting the last clutch of the year, nowt of breeding age and nowt that was not old enough to feed itself
2 colonies survivors have teamed up and based themselves here 15 is probably a population that can recover and expand if conditions permit

the mice all seem ok, worm city without the brack family

very last day of the dinosaurs, i just observed an extinction event at today and local scale

"have you met professor sammison?, she is an astrophysicist, i am sure you will get on"

"hello, im red wriggles, i spend most of my time mining underground, tell me about the universe above the earth"

Mistress Rose

Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 14793

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 22 8:26 am Post subject:
Went to son's house yesterday and coming back from town saw and heard a good number of sparrows; hedge I would think as the sort that settle in a hedge which then twitters at you. I won't really know about the small birds until next spring when they start to sing a lot, but the robins seem all right round here.

gz

Joined: 23 Jan 2009
Posts: 8142
Location: Ayrshire, Scotland

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 22 10:10 am Post subject:
"our" robin looks to be back. Plus a new blackbird with a white feather on his rear end..which will make him easy to recognise.

dpack

Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 43746
Location: yes

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 22 10:25 am Post subject:
it took the new flock a while to start a choir, it is rather nice to hear no robins round here, there were 2, one each end of the row of yards and gardens

Mistress Rose

Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 14793

Posted: Tue Sep 20, 22 6:47 am Post subject:
Our robins still seem to be with us, and saw blackbirds in the garden yesterday as well.

sgt.colon

Joined: 27 Jul 2009
Posts: 7365
Location: Just south of north.

Posted: Tue Sep 20, 22 8:42 am Post subject:

Still no blackbirds around our way and I've not seen the robin for ages. Thankfully saw a blue tit last week for the first time in ages. Sparrows, well there is about 22-25 of them on the feeders and boy do they bicker.

and not see the wood pigeons since a cat took one out.

The buddleia across the road from us is in full bloom. Lots of butterflies around at the moment and one came and visited us the other day.

gz

Joined: 23 Jan 2009
Posts: 8142
Location: Ayrshire, Scotland

Posted: Tue Sep 20, 22 8:50 am Post subject:

Buddleia is a blessing..one of our favourite cafÃ©s in Prestwick has an outdoor at the back and the next door to it has a buddleia..with peacock and admiral butterflies, hoverflies, bumble and honey bees on it.

What birds would eat buddleia seeds?

On our foraging walk yesterday we saw a bluetit and a couple of great tits..and something we couldn't see in birch trees going peep peep very high...long tailed tit?
There are usually quite a few around

Mistress Rose

Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 14793

Posted: Wed Sep 21, 22 6:57 am Post subject:
Our buddlia seems to have a few flowers, but they have generally been over for this year. I have seen finches on the seeds. Saw a great tit in the hedge yesterday and we still have loads of wood pigeons. Have also seen kites recently.

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